Sustainable Pathways Objective 2 - Scenario Development

Objective 2, Milestone 2 - Static water stocks and flows model of the Auckland economy

The major water stocks and flows in the Auckland region have been identified in diagrammatic form. The key players involved in abstracting water from the environment, in supplying water to consumers (business and residential) and in statutory regulation have been identified and targeted for data provision and/or participation in a steering group for the project. Data have been collated from a variety of accessible databases including water meter records for all households and businesses in the metropolitan urban area for 1999, and a comprehensive regional resource consent database for 1998 specifying maximum consented values. Annualised water meter records have also been attached to the resource consents database. The model is now complete.

Objective 2, Milestone 3 – Physical Systems Dynamics Model of the Auckland Economy

A prototype physical Systems Dynamics model of the Auckland region has been developed. This model describes the key interrelationships in the Auckland economy and between the Auckland economy and its biophysical environment. Two half-day workshops have been held with Auckland Regional Council staff to demonstrate the systems dynamics modelling framework and to investigate possible cases studies for its application within the Auckland Region. Additional workshops will be required to establish scenarios for the case studies, and to determine collaboratively any drivers of change not already included in the prototype model. The physical Systems Dynamics model is now completed.

Objective 2, Milestone 7 – Integration of socio-economic drivers of change

Three half-day workshops, overlapping with the workshops held in Objective 2, Milestone 3, have been held with Professor LeHeron to demonstrate and outline the economic and biophysical information and modelling frameworks used to date. A set of diagrams documenting changes to Auckland region’s economic sectors with comparative advantage has been produced for the years 1986 through to 2001. Each diagram shows the key economic flows between those sectors with a comparative advantage in the Auckland economy. They also identify whether the sector is being driven by local, interregional or international demand. The changes of time captured in these diagrams will help Professor LeHeron in formulating a theory of the dynamics of change in the Auckland region economy.

Nelson project

The aim of our research effort over the last year has been to engage with the stakeholders in Nelson, more clearly define their needs, and collaboratively develop an intermediate-term project plan. All these milestones have been successfully achieved and were accomplished by ongoing email dialogue, several meetings in Nelson, and the running of two workshops for local councillors. The collection and synthesis of material from these events has been developed into an initial 2-year project plan. This project plan will now form the basis of a schedule to an MOU between the participating institutions to this research project. The intention of the MOU is to recognise and formalise this research venture.

Objective 2, Milestone 5 – Nelson What If

Regional input-output tables have been constructed for the year ending March 1998 and 2001 for the Nelson economy. From these tables summaries of the economic performance of the Nelson economy have been constructed, including estimates of Nelson’s GRP, GRP by sector, employment by sector, business activity by sector, expenditure on factors of production by sector, and so on. A population model was developed for scenario work.